2024 Early Voting Analysis: Republican Gains, Democratic Mail-In Lead

As of 16 days before the November election, early in-person voting among likely Republicans has reached parity with likely Democrats, representing an increase for Republicans since previous elections. However, Democrats still dominate mail-in voting by a significant margin of more than two-to-one.

As the November election approaches, early in-person voting data shows that anticipated Republican votes are now nearly equal to those of likely Democratic voters, marking a new high for Republican participation compared to previous election cycles from 2021 to 2023. Nevertheless, Democratic candidates continue to capture a significant lead in mail-in ballots, maintaining a ratio exceeding two-to-one compared to their Republican counterparts. This analysis is based on data gathered 16 days prior to the election, specifically as of October 20, 2024. In Virginia, voter registration does not require party affiliation, and all ballots are counted only on election day, necessitating that estimations of voters’ party affiliation are derived from a match of voter IDs in the Virginia Daily Absentee List with statistical data from L2 Political. This firm employs an algorithm to infer party affiliation by analyzing past voting behavior and demographic characteristics. Notably, data for 2020 was excluded from this study due to limitations that resulted in a substantial “Unknown” category exceeding 20 percent. For comprehensive insights, including early voting statistics by locality, the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) provides an Early Voting Dashboard.

Early voting patterns are crucial indicators of voter sentiment and possible election outcomes. Tracking how different political parties mobilize their supporters to vote early can shed light on broader trends leading up to an election. Specifically, the data outlines early in-person voting trends alongside mail-in voting behaviors, both of which are essential for understanding the dynamics of electoral participation.

In summary, early voting trends reveal that Republican support is at a notable level just weeks ahead of the election, indicating a potential shift in voter engagement strategies. Meanwhile, Democrats continue to lead significantly in mail-in voting. These dynamics will likely influence the overall outcomes of the upcoming election in November 2024, highlighting the competitive electoral landscape.

Original Source: www.vpap.org