Ethiopia Faces Third Earthquake, Experts Express Concerns for Dam Safety

Ethiopia has experienced its third earthquake in a series of seismic events, raising safety concerns for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. With a total of thirty-one earthquakes recorded this year alone, experts warn of potential risks to the dam’s integrity due to expanded water storage capacity and ongoing geological instability in the region.

Ethiopia experienced a third earthquake on Sunday, registering a magnitude of 4.7 at a depth of 10 kilometers. This seismic event occurred approximately 570 kilometers away from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and around 400 kilometers from the eastern edge of the lake. Abbas Sharaqi, a geology and water resources professor at Cairo University, noted that this earthquake marked the sixteenth in a span of five weeks, contributing to a total of thirty-one earthquakes recorded in the area thus far this year, with magnitudes ranging between four and five degrees. In 2023, Ethiopia has documented thirty-eight earthquakes, with the most substantial one reaching a magnitude of 5.6. For context, the average incidence of earthquakes exceeding four degrees between 2014 and 2020 was 5.3, while the occurrence of those measuring below four degrees numbered in the hundreds. Professor Sharaqi remarked on the unusual seismic activity, emphasizing the necessity for heightened surveillance of the GERD and the expansive lake, which extends beyond 200 kilometers in length. He stated that while an earthquake with a magnitude of five occurring at a distance from the dam may currently pose no immediate danger, the potential for larger seismic events closer to the structure exists—especially given that the GERD currently holds 60 billion cubic meters of water. Importantly, the original United States plan for the GERD featured a storage capacity of merely 11.1 billion cubic meters. However, the Ethiopian government significantly amplified its specifications, increasing this capacity to an alarming 60 billion cubic meters. This raises concerns regarding the structural safety of the dam, particularly should seismic activity intensify and approach the dam more closely. Before the latest earthquake, two additional quakes occurred on Saturday, both with a magnitude of 4.6. The first struck at a depth of 12.2 kilometers at 8:55 PM, followed by another of the same magnitude at a depth of 10 kilometers later that evening. These events underscore the ongoing seismic activity in the Ethiopian Rift Valley, where such earthquakes have been frequent over recent weeks, with the initial tremor noted on September 27 registering a magnitude of 4.5. The evidence of increased earthquake activity in the region and the looming risk it poses to the GERD underlines the importance of ongoing monitoring and assessments to ensure the stability and safety of this critical infrastructural project.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a focal point of geopolitical tension in the region, primarily involving Ethiopia and neighboring countries. The dam, initially designed with a significantly lower storage capacity, has been the subject of extensive modifications, leading to concerns regarding its structural integrity amid increasing seismic activities. The recent uptick in earthquakes indicates a need for strict monitoring, particularly given the dam’s substantial water storage capacities and the potential risks posed by geological instabilities in the area. Geologists have noted that the frequency and intensity of earthquakes can impact the stability of such large infrastructure, prompting experts to call for vigilance and updated safety assessments.

In conclusion, the recent earthquakes in Ethiopia, including a notable third tremor, signify an alarming trend of increasing seismic activity in the region. Concerns raised by experts regarding the safety of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reflect the potential risks associated with its enlarged water storage capacity amidst these geological threats. Continuous monitoring and careful management of the dam’s safety are imperative as seismic events may intensify, thereby posing a greater risk to this critical structure and the surrounding environment.

Original Source: ozarab.media