Impact of Climate Change on Avalanche Behavior in Switzerland by 2100

Climate change is projected to decrease overall avalanche occurrences but increase the risk of wet snow avalanches in Switzerland by 2100. The rise in average winter temperatures will lead to fewer avalanches reaching valley regions, though extreme snowfall events could still generate dangerous conditions at higher elevations, necessitating reassessment of safety measures in at-risk areas.

Climate change is anticipated to significantly influence avalanche behaviors in Switzerland by 2100. According to the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF), while the number of overall avalanches is expected to decrease, there will be an increased risk of wet snow avalanches due to warmer temperatures. As winter temperatures could rise by approximately five degrees Celsius, the likelihood of these wet snow avalanches rising above the tree line is higher, particularly with the effects of rainwater and snowmelt on the existing snowpack. The research suggests that warmer winters will lead to less frequent avalanches reaching valley areas, as the snow line ascends and snow accumulation diminishes. However, the potential for extreme snowfall events may still produce larger avalanches at higher elevations, which could travel to the valleys if they follow certain topographic channels. The SLF findings derive from comprehensive studies conducted at various Swiss locations, including Weissfluhjoch above Davos and a high-altitude station near Zermatt.

Switzerland’s mountainous landscape has long been susceptible to avalanche activity, a concern that has only intensified with climate change. The continuing rise in global temperatures poses new risks as changing weather patterns contribute to different types of snow accumulation and, consequently, to the dynamics of avalanches. This issue not only affects skiing and outdoor recreation but also has significant safety implications for those living and working in alpine regions.

In conclusion, climate change is poised to alter the dynamics of avalanche occurrences in Switzerland, potentially leading to a scenario of fewer overall avalanches but a heightened danger from wet snow avalanches. Researchers emphasize the importance of closing ski resorts in high-risk areas as a prudent safety measure. These changes will likely affect not only Switzerland but could extend their influence to similar alpine environments worldwide.

Original Source: www.swissinfo.ch