Tropical Storm Sara Threatens Honduras with Devastating Rainfall

Tropical Storm Sara formed in the Western Caribbean and may cause severe flooding in Honduras, with rainfall projected to reach up to 20 inches. The storm arrives during a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season, which has recorded 18 named storms. Historical precedents in the region demonstrate a pattern of devastation from late-season storms, highlighting vulnerabilities exacerbated by climate change.

On November 14, 2024, Tropical Storm Sara emerged from Tropical Depression 19 above the exceptionally warm waters of the Western Caribbean, highlighting the current hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season. With this latest storm, there have now been 18 named storms this season, compared to an average of 14. As it approaches Honduras, Sara is expected to bring devastating rainfall, potentially exceeding 20 inches, along with a severe flooding threat in the region known for its vulnerability to such storms. As of 1 p.m. EST Thursday, Sara was located approximately 50 miles from the Nicaragua/Honduras border and moving at 12 mph towards the west. Forecast models suggest that the storm will maintain its trajectory near the coast of Honduras, risking catastrophic flooding and mudslides due to the rugged terrain and moisture accumulation. The official forecasting bodies have indicated that Sara may evolve from a tropical storm to a weaker tropical depression as it interacts with land. Though predictions emerging from various ensemble models indicate a potential northward shift into the Gulf of Mexico, which would significantly diminish risks to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen unprecedented activity, with Sara marking the latest addition to a list that includes a record number of named storms since late September. Honduras has a history of suffering catastrophic impacts from late-season tropical cyclones, including Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which resulted in over 11,000 fatalities. More recent storms, such as Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020, inflicted severe damage, affecting millions and exacerbating economic strains. The ongoing threat of tropical storms like Sara underscores the region’s vulnerability and the growing influence of climate change on weather patterns and migration.

In conclusion, Tropical Storm Sara’s impending impact on Honduras illustrates the region’s continued struggle with natural disasters exacerbated by a changing climate. Past hurricanes have left deep scars in terms of casualties and economic damage, challenges that will only heighten if storms continue to form and stall over the area. Addressing these impacts and preparing for future storms remains a crucial priority for local and international agencies alike.

Original Source: yaleclimateconnections.org