Tropical Cyclone “Bheki” Approaches Mauritius and Réunion with Rain and Wind

Tropical Cyclone “Bheki” approached Mauritius and Réunion on November 21, 2024, with sustained winds of 74 km/h. The system, influenced by various environmental factors, is expected to weaken within 24 hours while bringing moderate rainfall to the islands through November 25. Bheki is the second named storm of the 2024/25 cyclone season and was recorded as the strongest November cyclone in the basin’s history.

On November 21, 2024, Tropical Cyclone “Bheki” approached the islands of Mauritius and Réunion, generating moderate rainfall and maximum sustained winds of 74 km/h (46 mph). Despite the cyclone displaying tropical characteristics with a warm core, its development potential remained limited by marginal sea surface temperatures of approximately 26 °C (78.8 °F) and the influence of strong upper-level winds.

As of 09:00 UTC on November 22, the cyclone had stalled southwest of La Réunion but began a southwestward movement, expected to accelerate as it moves away from the islands. Initial satellite observations indicated re-emerging convective activity southeast of the cyclone’s core, which could herald further intensification, supported by proximity to a jet stream feature. However, predictions suggested that under drier conditions, Bheki would likely diminish to below 65 km/h (40 mph) within 24 hours.

Moving forward, the cyclone was projected to maintain its southwestern heading with predictions varying on its intensity. The HWRF model anticipated a temporary strengthening to 83 km/h (52 mph), while the HAFS-A model suggested a steady period before subsequent weakening. Bheki was anticipated to cause moderate rainfall in Mauritius and Réunion during its passage. Notably, Bheki represented the second named storm in the 2024/25 South-West Indian Ocean Cyclone season and had previously achieved status as the strongest November tropical cyclone recorded in the basin.

The formation and evolution of Tropical Cyclone “Bheki” provide critical insights into meteorological phenomena in the South-West Indian Ocean. This region is susceptible to cyclonic activity, particularly during the cyclone season, which lasts from November to April. The warmth of ocean waters typically fuels the development of tropical cyclones. However, factors such as upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and local topography can significantly impact a cyclone’s potential intensity and trajectory. Understanding these dynamics is essential for forecasting and mitigating the impacts of such weather events on vulnerable coastal communities.

In summary, Tropical Cyclone “Bheki” demonstrated significant characteristics typical of tropical cyclones but faced limitations due to environmental factors. While initial models suggested potential strengthening, the cyclone is forecasted to weaken under less favorable conditions. The projected movement of the storm underscores the importance of monitoring its trajectory and intensity for the safety of affected regions.

Original Source: watchers.news