Cyclone Chido’s Intensification Linked to Climate Change: Insights from Scientists

A study by Imperial College London indicates that climate change has significantly intensified Cyclone Chido, which struck Mayotte as a category four cyclone. The assessment suggests that the likelihood of similar strength storms has increased by about 40% in the current warmer climate. With devastating impacts felt across the archipelago, officials warn of a potentially high death toll as the cyclone tore through vulnerable housing structures.

Recent research from Imperial College London has revealed that climate change has contributed to the increased intensity of Cyclone Chido, which hit the Indian Ocean archipelago of Mayotte. The study indicates that the likelihood of cyclones with Chido’s strength has escalated by approximately 40 percent due to the warmer climate observed in 2024, compared to pre-industrial times. Chido was classified as a category four storm, representing one of the most destructive events to affect Mayotte in nine decades, particularly devastating residential structures in this economically disadvantaged region.

The severity of Cyclone Chido, which struck on Saturday, raised concerns about potential fatalities, with officials fearing that the death toll may reach into the thousands. The storm’s classification as a category four cyclone has underscored the growing risks associated with climate change. The affected area consists of a large population living in makeshift housing, making them particularly vulnerable to extreme weather incidents.

In their assessment, the researchers utilized a sophisticated computer model to simulate tropical cyclones and determine the influence of global warming on storm dynamics. Their findings suggest that the wind speeds associated with Cyclone Chido increased by approximately three miles per second when compared to historical climate data prior to fossil fuel consumption.

While the French weather service has refrained from definitively linking Chido’s intensity to climate change, they acknowledge that warmer oceans, resulting from human-induced climate change, have intensified storm conditions. The trajectory of Cyclone Chido was particularly damaging, as it directly traversed the archipelago, further exacerbating the storm’s detrimental effects. Currently, the global climate is approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer than in the pre-industrial era, fueling the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as tropical storms, by enhancing atmospheric moisture and evaporation rates.

The phenomenon of climate change has been increasingly correlated with the intensification of tropical storms. As global temperatures rise due to the burning of fossil fuels, the atmosphere can sustain more moisture, leading to severe weather patterns. Cyclone Chido serves as a pertinent example of this trend, presenting researchers with a case study involving a cyclone of unprecedented magnitude for the region and emphasizing the impacts of climate change on natural disasters. Studies such as those by Imperial College London illustrate the urgency of understanding how these changes in climate are affecting storm frequency and intensity.

In conclusion, the research surrounding Cyclone Chido highlights a critical intersection between climate change and the intensification of tropical storms. The findings suggest that as global temperatures continue to rise, so too does the likelihood and severity of such storms. Observations from Chido’s impact on Mayotte not only stress the immediate need for disaster preparedness in vulnerable regions but also reinforce the importance of addressing the broader issue of climate change to mitigate future risks.

Original Source: www.rfi.fr