Turkey’s Strategic Gains Following Assad’s Exit: A New Era in Syrian Politics

Turkey has reinstated diplomatic relations in Syria following Assad’s ousting, led by its spy chief’s visit to Damascus. Analysts indicate that Turkey’s strategic maneuvers have allowed it significant influence over Kurdish dynamics and the Syrian reconstruction efforts. President Erdoğan capitalizes on this development for domestic political gain while managing relations with HTS and asserting influence in northern Syria.

Recent events following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have positioned Turkey favorably within the Middle East geopolitical landscape. Turkish officials promptly reinstated their diplomatic presence in Damascus, signified by the raising of their flag above their embassy after a twelve-year absence. This historical moment was accentuated by a visit from Turkey’s spy chief, Ibrahim Kalin, who engaged with prominent Syrian factions, reflecting Ankara’s strategic maneuvering in the post-Assad power structure.

Experts characterize Kalin’s visit as a celebrated achievement for Turkey, with analysts like Dareen Khalifa of the International Crisis Group noting that Ankara enjoyed significant leverage following Assad’s removal. Erdoğan’s approach in Syria appears validated, providing Turkey with opportunities to influence Kurdish dynamics in the northeastern part of Syria as well as a role in the Syrian reconstruction process. Turkey’s calculated waiting game before engaging with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has proven conducive to strengthening its standing amid shifting allegiances.

Turkey’s tolerance of HTS’s military operations, particularly in Idlib, underlines its complex relationship with the group. As HTS prepared offensives, Turkish officials ultimately acquiesced to their plans, underscoring the strategic shifts in alliances against Assad’s forces. The swift rise of the insurgency took Ankara by surprise, termed by Gönül Tol of the Middle East Institute as a ‘catastrophic success’ for Turkey, opening avenues for expanded influence but also inviting potential risks.

Significantly, President Erdoğan has capitalized on this geopolitical shift domestically, framing his role as one of Syrian protection while maintaining support among nationalist constituents who are inclined towards returning Syrian refugees. The Turkish government has already indicated intentions for Syrians to return home, with over 7,600 crossing back within a week of Assad’s ousting. Moreover, Turkish enterprises are primed to engage in reconstruction efforts in Syria, with stakeholder confidence increasing in the construction sector.

Turkey’s shifting relations with Kurdish groups have also prompted actions in the northeast, where Turkish-backed factions are now actively pushing against U.S.-backed Kurdish forces. As the focus shifts away from Damascus, Turkey appears to be successfully consolidating its objectives unabated. Noteworthy is Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent statements underscoring the need for legitimate Kurdish representation solely within the Syrian capital, aimed at preventing any autonomous Kurdish governance in the regions Turkey perceives as critical.

In this post-Assad landscape, Turkey’s engagement with HTS is expected to grow, with Ankara poised to provide necessary support as the latter seeks recognition on the international stage. Turkey’s pivotal role in the reconstruction of Syria suggests that its influence will be crucial in the region going forward, solidifying its position in this new regional order.

The article discusses Turkey’s strategic positioning following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the subsequent return of Turkish diplomatic presence in Damascus. It highlights Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s statements regarding Syrian refugee repatriation and Turkey’s construction sector readiness for rebuilding efforts. Moreover, it outlines the implications of Turkey’s relationships with Syrian factions like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its evolving dynamics with Kurdish groups post-Assad.

In conclusion, Turkey’s response to the recent shifts in the Syrian landscape affirms its proactive stance in leveraging the political upheaval to enhance its influence within the region. The reinvigorated diplomatic ties with Damascus, the prospects of reconstruction, and Turkey’s balancing act regarding Kurdish forces illustrate Erdoğan’s adeptness at navigating complex regional issues. Stakeholders will watch closely to see how Ankara capitalizes on this unprecedented opportunity while managing potential challenges.

Original Source: www.theguardian.com