Tropical Cyclone Chido: A Historic Devastation for Mayotte

Tropical Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte on December 14, 2023, with winds over 200 km/h, leading to the strongest storm in 90 years. It caused heavy rainfall, significant loss of life, and destruction of infrastructure. Despite timely warnings from Météo-France, the impact was devastating. The cyclone later affected Mozambique and Malawi, while the role of climate change remains uncertain according to meteorological experts.

On December 14, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte with unprecedented force, registering wind speeds exceeding 200 kilometers per hour and gusts reaching over 225 kilometers per hour. According to Météo-France, this was the strongest storm to impact this small Indian Ocean island in nearly 90 years. Accompanying the cyclone were torrential rains, amounting to 176 mm within a mere 12 hours, and perilous sea conditions with average wave heights exceeding five meters. Notably, the cyclone’s severity resulted in the destruction of some of Météo-France’s observation facilities.

In response to this disaster, French President Emmanuel Macron declared a national day of mourning. Initial reports indicated a significant loss of life, with estimates suggesting that hundreds may have perished, primarily due to the prevalence of informal housing structures that are ill-equipped to withstand such severe weather. This heavy toll occurred despite advance warnings from Météo-France, which issued an amber alert more than 50 hours in advance, followed by a red alert and a rarely invoked violet alert shortly thereafter.

Chido’s unusual trajectory allowed it to bypass Madagascar, a larger island that could have diminished its strength. Instead, it made a direct hit on Mayotte, impacting it as a powerful tropical cyclone. Following its landfall on Mayotte, Chido continued its course, striking Mozambique on December 15, where it weakened but still brought significant rainfall to both Mozambique and Malawi.

In a statement, Météo-France expressed uncertainty regarding the influence of climate change on the cyclone’s path and intensity. “The impacts of Chido are above all due to its track and the direct hit on Mayotte,” they noted. They added, “Our current state of knowledge doesn’t allow us to draw any conclusions about the role of climate change on the track of the cyclone and on its intensity.” The organization is recognized as the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for the South-West Indian Ocean, emphasizing its critical role in forecasting and monitoring cyclone activity.

Météo-France’s seasonal predictions, released on October 31, accurately forecast a premature start to the 2024-2025 cyclone season. Over recent years, the first storms typically emerged in January; however, this prediction indicates a potential for earlier occurrences. The current outlook for the 2024-2025 cyclone season anticipates near-normal to above-normal activity, forecasting between 9 to 13 systems, of which 4 to 7 may escalate to tropical cyclone status.

Tropical cyclones are a significant meteorological phenomenon, especially in the Indian Ocean region, where they can cause devastating impacts on vulnerable islands such as Mayotte. The frequency and intensity of such storms can be exacerbated by various factors, including climate change. Météo-France plays a vital role in monitoring and predicting cyclone events, aiming to provide timely warnings to mitigate losses. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for preparedness and response efforts when faced with severe weather events.

In conclusion, Tropical Cyclone Chido has left an indelible mark on Mayotte, evidencing the destructive power of extreme weather events, particularly in areas that are not accustomed to such phenomena. While accurate forecasting has improved, the tragic loss of life underscores the need for robust disaster preparedness strategies. The relationship between climate change and cyclone activity continues to be a subject of study, with ongoing implications for future tropical cyclone seasons in the region.

Original Source: wmo.int