Increase in Cyclone Intensity Amid Stable Frequency Due to Climate Change

The frequency of tropical cyclones remains stable, averaging 47 each year since 1980. However, their intensity has increased, with maximum wind speeds rising from 182kph to 192kph and a significant rise in category five storms. Research confirms the influence of climate change on these trends, while socio-economic vulnerabilities exacerbate the humanitarian impact of cyclones.

Recent analyses indicate that while the total number of tropical cyclones has remained consistent, their intensity has markedly increased, corroborating prior projections made by climatologists. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there has been an average of 47 cyclones annually since 1980. However, recent comparative studies spanning from 1981 to 2010 to the last decade show a significant rise in the average maximum wind speeds of these storms, escalating from 182 kilometers per hour to 192 kilometers per hour, which equates to a 5% increase.

The frequency of the most severe cyclones, classified as category five on the Saffir-Simpson scale, has also surged, with the statistic rising from approximately 10% of all cyclones to 14% over the past ten years. These developments reinforce warnings from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which claims that climate change is contributing to an increase in both the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones, particularly those in the upper categories.

Robert Vautard, a noted climatologist and IPCC contributor, highlighted that while climate change plays a role in these trends, the severe humanitarian crises resulting from cyclones are primarily influenced by existing socio-economic vulnerabilities. Unfortunately, the year 2024 recorded notable cyclone activity, including Hurricane Milton, which had wind speeds peaking at 278 kilometers per hour, affecting regions like the West Pacific and Mayotte, where a recent cyclone resulted in fatalities and injuries.

This article delves into the correlation between climate change and the increasing intensity of tropical cyclones. Despite the consistent occurrence of these storms over recent decades, new research indicates that their strength has intensified, aligning with predictions established by climatological studies. The context is crucial as it underscores the dual factors of climate and socio-economic conditions that influence the devastating impacts of such natural disasters.

In summary, while the frequency of tropical cyclones has not escalated markedly over the past four decades, their intensity has significantly increased, leading to heightened risks associated with severe weather events. This trend highlights the urgent need for enhanced preparedness and protective measures against the backdrop of climate change to mitigate potential humanitarian disasters.

Original Source: www.rfi.fr