WISER EWSA Launches Intensive Weather Forecast Testbed in Southern Africa

On 30 January 2025, the WISER EWSA initiative launches its second intensive weather forecasting testbed in Zambia, South Africa, and Mozambique. This program aims to enhance forecasting capabilities and disseminate essential weather warnings to communities affected by recent tropical cyclones. By engaging with local stakeholders and focusing on early warning systems, the project seeks to improve preparedness against the region’s increasing weather challenges.

On 30 January 2025, the second intensive weather forecast testbed of the Weather and Climate Information Services (WISER) programme commences in Lusaka, Zambia, with additional centers in South Africa and Mozambique. This initiative aims to enhance weather forecasting capabilities, disseminate life-saving weather updates, and address the challenges posed by recent tropical cyclones Dikeledi and Chido, which inflicted significant damage on Mozambique and Madagascar.

Extreme weather events have devastating implications for southern Africa, highlighted by recent cyclones. Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi resulted in ten fatalities and widespread displacement due to heavy rains and gusts reaching 63 kilometers per hour. In contrast, Cyclone Chido brought winds over 200 kilometers per hour, leading to over 100 deaths and significant property destruction in Mozambique, underscoring the region’s vulnerability to hazardous weather.

With climate change exacerbating weather-related disasters, the multidisciplinary team involved in this forecasting testbed comprises meteorologists, scientists, and community engagement specialists. Their work, extending through a “king-size” testbed that started in October 2024, aims to refine methodologies for disseminating timely weather information to at-risk communities, enhancing their preparedness for severe weather.

Notably, the upcoming intensive testbed will facilitate a dynamic flow of information, with community observers receiving daily updates and feedback requests to validate the accuracy and accessibility of the forecasts. This contrasts with the previous testbed focused on nowcasting in extreme situations, emphasizing a proactive approach with increased community engagement through consistent communication.

The project emphasizes the significance of early warning systems to enhance community preparedness for hazardous weather. It aligns with the United Nations’ Early Warnings for All initiative, which seeks to establish comprehensive early warning systems globally by 2027. Such systems aim to safeguard lives and property by ensuring timely communication about severe weather hazards.

The need for improved forecasting is crucial, given the challenges posed by unpredictable rainfall and droughts. Mr. Ishaam Abader, Chief Executive Officer of the South African Weather Service, noted, “The WISER EWSA project targets disadvantaged urban communities while also strengthening meteorologists’ weather modeling.” This collaborative effort aims to produce tailored solutions for vulnerable populations, enhancing the relevance of weather information.

From a technical perspective, Dr. Itzel San Roman Pineda highlighted the growing autonomy of meteorological services in the participating nations. These services are independently issuing nowcasts and expanding their outreach, reflecting increased confidence among forecasters. However, effective dissemination remains a challenge, necessitating prompt communication through diverse channels to reach a wider audience effectively.

Sustaining nowcasting processes during adverse weather events is resource-intensive. Dr. Adriaan Perrels emphasized the importance of developing sustainable business models to support ongoing service delivery and to accurately assess the socioeconomic benefits of early warning services. The upcoming workshop aims to discuss strategies to secure resources for sustained forecasting efforts post-project.

Community engagement plays a pivotal role in the success of this testing phase. Volunteers across Zambia, South Africa, and Mozambique have taken active roles in promoting weather awareness. Dr. Katharine Vincent stated, “Volunteers in all three countries have been actively providing feedback on nowcasts to support verification,” demonstrating the integration of local knowledge into the forecasting process.

Overall, the WISER EWSA project exemplifies a co-production approach, bridging the gap between weather information producers and users. Dr. Vincent noted the progress from initial skepticism to a growing recognition of the utility of weather forecasts. This collaborative model aims to foster trust in meteorological advice, ultimately enabling communities to mitigate weather-related risks effectively.

Southern Africa is increasingly susceptible to extreme weather events due to climate change. Recent tropical cyclones, such as Dikeledi and Chido, have illustrated the region’s vulnerability, resulting in widespread loss of life and disruption to communities. Therefore, initiatives like the WISER programme’s intensive forecasting testbed aim to enhance meteorological services and early warning systems. By utilizing a multidisciplinary approach, this project seeks to improve forecasting accuracy, community engagement, and response strategies to severe weather events.

The intensive weather forecast testbed in southern Africa represents a crucial investment in improving meteorological services. By fostering collaboration among forecasters, scientists, and communities, the WISER EWSA initiative aims to enhance the relevance and reliability of weather information. Sustainable practices, effective communication, and community engagement are paramount to safeguarding vulnerable populations against the increasing threats of extreme weather events.

Original Source: www.metoffice.gov.uk