Syria: The Aftermath of Assad’s Brutality and Hopes for the Future

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship marks a pivotal moment for Syria, as millions celebrate the potential end of brutal repression. The rapid rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) raises critical questions about future governance and the treatment of minorities in the country. Journalist Anand Gopal discusses the revolution’s origins, the regime’s decay, and the complex aftermath facing Syria.

In recent developments, millions of Syrians commemorate the end of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, regarded as one of the most brutal dictatorships of the 21st century. The rapid advances made by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the swift decline of Assad’s rule have generated new inquiries into HTS’s ideology and its implications for minorities in Syria. Journalist Anand Gopal converses with Bhaskar Sunkara, the founding editor of Jacobin, exploring the roots of the Syrian revolution, the ensuing civil war, and potential future scenarios in Syria.

The roots of the Syrian regime trace back to the Baath Party coup in the 1960s, which initially established a government supportive of land reform and garnered a social base among peasantry. Hafez al-Assad’s takeover in 1970 resulted in a halt to radical economic redistribution, forming an authoritarian government reliant on an Alawite security apparatus and the Sunni bourgeoisie. Public welfare services were expanded but accompanied by a total suppression of political dissent, creating a troubling socio-political compact.

Assad’s rise in 2000 saw the unraveling of this compact as he introduced neoliberal reforms that eroded the welfare state without enacting political changes. This transformation left the populace disenfranchised in both economic security and political rights and consequently brought forth the peaceful uprising of 2011, which mobilized mainly the working and middle classes. The regime’s violent crackdown on demonstrations initiated the militarization of the rebellion, leading to the formation of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

Initially, Assad’s loyalist base comprised Alawite and Sunni bourgeois factions, but the regime’s exploitation of minority fears fueled support among various communities concerned about potential annihilation post-Assad. As the revolutionary sentiment grew more militarized, foreign intervention, particularly from Russia and Iran, bolstered Assad’s regime, which became increasingly isolated and corrupt.

The Assad regime capitalized on the absence of a robust Left post-revolution, having systematically eliminated socialist influence over five decades. Despite majority calls for a secular, democratic state, the uprising harbored two distinct factions—those advocating for political freedom and others concentrated on socio-economic issues. Over time, Islamist factions gained prominence, partly due to their organizational acumen and prioritization of public needs, effectively overshadowing the secular rebels’ efforts.

The recent collapse of Assad’s support can be attributed to ongoing systemic decay exacerbated by external pressures, particularly from Hezbollah’s weakening position and the distraction of Russian military efforts in Ukraine. Once rebels began their offensive, the regime’s military disintegration became evident, with low morale and discontent among soldiers unable to sustain their allegiance without substantive benefits.

What lies ahead for Syria remains uncertain. Given the unyielding brutality of the Assad regime, any governance emerging from this change may potentially represent an improvement. The widespread acknowledgment of shared suffering under the Assad dictatorship has fostered a profound emotional release among the population, indicating a potential for new beginnings, free from five decades of repression.

In conclusion, the fall of Bashar al-Assad marks a significant turning point in Syria’s tumultuous history. Despite the uncertainty surrounding future governance, the end of one of the 21st century’s most brutal regimes allows for the possibility of enhanced political expression and rebuilding. However, while the initial elation exists, many challenges persist, including the potential rise of new oppressive groups. Thus, the path forward must be navigated with caution, maintaining aspirations for democracy and human rights in a deeply fragmented society.

Original Source: jacobin.com