Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – February 4, 2025

The Pacific Disaster Center’s latest report outlines current tropical cyclone activities, including 11S (Faida), 13S (Vince), 14S (Taliah), and 15P. Cyclones are moving towards landfall in Madagascar and potential redevelopment after interacting with favorable conditions. An area of disturbed weather designated as Invest 92P shows high potential for cyclone formation.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) has issued a Tropical Cyclone Activity Report detailing current cyclone developments in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This report indicates active cyclones such as Tropical Cyclone 11S (Faida), Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince), Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah), and Tropical Cyclone 15P, with specific forecasts and warnings for each.

Tropical Cyclone 11S (Faida), situated 113 nautical miles southeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar, is experiencing changes indicative of nearing landfall. With sustained winds initially at 25 knots and gusts reaching 35 knots, predictions suggest intensification before landfall in Madagascar, where terrain interaction is likely to weaken the system significantly during its transit across the island.

Tropical Cyclone 13S (Vince) is located approximately 1741 nautical miles east of Port Louis, Mauritius. Current analysis indicates maximum sustained winds at 95 knots, with the potential for redevelopment as it approaches favorable environments over the Mozambique Channel after interacting with land.

Tropical Cyclone 14S (Taliah), approximately 760 nautical miles east-southeast of Cocos Islands, possesses sustained winds of 80 knots. The system is characterized by asymmetry and complex structure but benefits from warm sea surfaces and adequate outflow, despite encountering mid-level dry air and moderate wind shear.

Tropical Cyclone 15P, approximately 310 nautical miles southwest of Suva, Fiji, has reported sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is undergoing unfavorable conditions with high wind shear and dry air intrusion, yet warm sea surface temperatures could provide temporary support for the system’s development as it approaches subtropical or hybrid classification.

Lastly, an area named Invest 92P, located 308 nautical miles west-northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia, is under investigation. This system demonstrates potential for significant cyclone development with favorable atmospheric conditions, and sustained winds between 28 to 33 knots are observed as it consolidates and tracks south-southeast over the next 24 hours.

In conclusion, the current report highlights significant tropical cyclone activities in the Pacific region. Cyclones 11S, 13S, 14S, and 15P show varying degrees of intensity, with warnings issued for expected landfalls and potential reintensification. Additionally, Invest 92P exhibits promising conditions for development. Continuous monitoring and updates will be crucial as these systems evolve.

Original Source: www.pdc.org