ISW Warns: US Military Aid Cut to Ukraine Could Bolster Russia and Adversaries

The ISW warns that cutting military aid to Ukraine could weaken US negotiations and boost Russia’s battlefield position. After a contentious Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, the prospect of halting assistance emerged. Maintaining support is crucial as it directly correlates with Ukraine’s ability to counter Russia. The ISW emphasizes that diminished aid may embolden adversaries like Iran and China, challenging US influence globally.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has issued a warning regarding the potential ramifications of halting military assistance to Ukraine. Such a decision could significantly weaken the United States’ negotiating power and potentially shift the battlefield dynamics in Russia’s favor. This concern arises after discussions between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, where the possibility of suspending aid was raised, but no formal decision has been made yet.

During the Oval Office meeting aimed at negotiating a US-Ukraine mineral agreement, tensions escalated, resulting in the abandonment of the signing agreement and the Ukrainian delegation’s premature departure. President Trump criticized President Zelenskyy for failing to pursue peace talks and for not making concessions to Russia, while Zelenskyy argued that any ceasefire would need robust security guarantees to ensure Russian compliance, given past dishonored ceasefires.

Since the onset of the invasion, the United States has committed over $65.9 billion in military support for Ukraine, positioning itself as the largest aide provider. President Zelenskyy has underscored that Ukraine’s success in the war is heavily dependent on continued US assistance. The ISW has observed that Russian territorial gains closely correlate with reductions in Western support, indicating the importance of steady aid in countering Russian advances on the battlefield.

Ukrainian forces have effectively utilized US-supplied systems, including Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS long-range strike capabilities, to inflict severe losses on Russian forces while limiting their territorial gains. This military strategy, aligned with Russia’s economic strains and anticipated challenges in troop generation by 2025, places the United States in a strategically advantageous position for future peace negotiations.

The ISW stated, “A suspension of ongoing US military assistance to Ukraine would encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to continue to increase his demands and fuel his conviction that he can achieve total victory through war.” The ISW further elaborates that reducing aid would diminish US global influence and empower adversarial states, such as Iran, North Korea, and China, ultimately leading to a perception of weakened US commitments to its allies.

The ongoing conflict has seen Russia relying on Iranian drones and North Korean military resources, underscoring the geopolitical stakes involved. American support for Ukraine embodies the United States’ commitment to preserving democratic values against external aggression, a stance that would be undermined by any reduction in aid. The abandonment of Ukraine could embolden adversaries, prompting them to test US resolve in other geopolitical arenas.

This analysis from ISW indicates that a reduction in military aid to Ukraine could have dire consequences for both Ukraine and the United States’ global standing. It highlights the interconnectedness of military support and wider geopolitical dynamics, as well as the potential for increased aggression from adversarial nations if the US appears to be retreating from its commitments to allies. Continued support for Ukraine is deemed vital not only for its immediate defense but for maintaining US influence worldwide.

Original Source: euromaidanpress.com