Strengthening Climate Change Outpaces La Niña in Future Weather Dynamics

Climate scientists assert that the effects of climate change are intensifying, overpowering traditional cooling phenomena like La Niña. Predictions indicate an early summer in India with extended heatwaves, following record temperatures and low rainfall. Current patterns showcase the increasing unpredictability of global weather influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with more extreme weather expected in the future.

Climate scientists are emphasizing the increasing robustness of climate change and its implications for future weather patterns, particularly in relation to La Niña events. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates an early summer characterized by above-normal temperatures and prolonged heatwave conditions. Notably, the nation recorded its warmest February since 1901, along with the fifth lowest rainfall in two decades.

The phenomenon of human-induced climate change is establishing a new climatic norm, which is making winters warmer and springs shorter. Arpita Mondal, an associate professor at IIT Bombay, highlights the significant impact of precipitation as a natural cooling mechanism, noting, “Updates from the IMD this year suggest that it was an unusually dry winter.”

Raghu Murtugudde, an earth system scientist, mentions observing global temperature anomalies during December to February, attributing these variations to jet stream movements. These powerful upper atmospheric winds significantly influence regional weather patterns. Mondal adds that their research indicates a direct link between the northward shift of jet streams before the monsoon and heatwave characteristics.

The interplay of El Niño and La Niña, components of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), also affects these climate trends. Vimal Mishra, chair professor of civil engineering at IIT Gandhinagar, explains that El Niño conditions typically bring warmer temperatures post-winter, contrasting with La Niña’s capacity for cooler days.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recently stated that the weak La Niña that emerged in December 2024 is likely to be transient. Current temperature projections indicate levels significantly above the long-term average, with sea surface temperatures remaining unusually high worldwide. Murtugudde cautions, “It’s not really a La Niña at all… these patterns are unexpected but likely related to ongoing record warming.”

Future forecasts suggest an increase in both the frequency and intensity of El Niño events, with expectations of extreme occurrences becoming more common. The recent El Niño episode of 2023-24 is noted among the strongest on record, contributing to rising global temperatures and extreme weather. As indicated by the IMD, India experienced 536 heatwave days in summer 2024, the highest count in fourteen years.

Mishra emphasizes the undeniable influence of climate change, mentioning that harsh heatwaves should not be overlooked, especially under the anticipated ENSO-neutral conditions this year. There is a projected 60% likelihood of such conditions occurring between March and May 2025. He asserts, “An El Niño will cause a lot of problems for us, but La Niña may not be able to provide comfort.”

In conclusion, climate change is manifesting more vigorously, leading to altered weather patterns that challenge traditional climate influences such as La Niña. The current projections indicate increasingly severe weather conditions, especially heatwaves in India. The scientific consensus points towards a growing likelihood of warmer temperatures and extreme weather events due to the interplay between El Niño and La Niña, significantly exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Therefore, preparedness for adverse climate impacts will be crucial in the years ahead.

Original Source: www.theweek.in