Renewed Tensions in South Sudan: Understanding the Crisis

Tensions in South Sudan are escalating due to militia violence, political reshuffles, and arrests in Juba. President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar are at odds, leading to clashes. The situation threatens to destabilize the fragile peace established in 2018. There are calls for international intervention to prevent potential civil war and address humanitarian crises.

Tensions in South Sudan are escalating due to increased militia violence in Upper Nile state, governmental reshuffles, and the arrest of numerous officials in Juba. Central to this unrest are President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, whose political discord has resulted in violent clashes, exacerbating the fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement that ended a brutal civil war, which claimed nearly 400,000 lives.

The recent political turmoil stems from Kiir’s dismissal of key government officials, a move perceived by Machar as a breach of the peace agreement. Political analyst Daniel Akech from the International Crisis Group indicates that this dismissal ignited protests and violence, particularly in western Bahr al-Ghazal. Moreover, Kiir’s redeployment of military forces has incited conflict in Upper Nile, highlighted by an attack on a UN helicopter, leading to casualties among UN staff and South Sudanese generals.

International response to the violence has been swift, with several Western countries condemning the attack, while the U.S. has ordered the evacuation of non-essential staff from its embassy. A travel advisory emphasized the ongoing armed conflicts across political and ethnic lines in South Sudan, where arms are readily accessible to civilians.

To address the escalating situation, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) convened a summit to strategize on peace and stability. Concurrently, Uganda has dispatched special forces to Juba, with military leaders from Uganda stressing their unequivocal support for President Kiir, positioning any opposition as an act of war against Uganda. Akech warns of the threats posed by potential aggressive movements of both Kiir’s and Machar’s forces, although the current situation, while tense, remains stable for now.

UN officials have expressed grave concerns regarding a regression in peace efforts, with Yasmin Sooka, chair of the Human Rights Commission in South Sudan, highlighting the decline in institutional development and the resurgence of violent power struggles. Recent reports indicate that a significant portion of the population faces severe food insecurity, and internal displacement continues to rise.

Local organizations are advocating for political dialogue to stave off further violence amidst the complex historical dynamics between Kiir and Machar. Akech emphasizes the enduring distrust between the leaders, which hampers progress towards a unified armed force and a definitive constitution.

The concerning conditions lead experts to posit that a full-scale civil war may be on the horizon. With both leaders commanding their own military factions, they face the risk of re-igniting conflict. Akech warns that the ongoing crisis in neighboring Sudan has implications for South Sudan’s stability. As Kiir engages with regional leaders, the potential for escalating violence remains a pressing concern.

Political scientist Abiol Lual Deng cautions against assuming that widespread violence is unavoidable, although she acknowledges a persistent undercurrent of low-level violence throughout South Sudan’s history. The involvement of the international community in pressuring both Kiir and Machar could play a vital role in mitigating conflict and establishing a foundation for peace among the country’s youth, who are less influenced by historical ethnic divisions.

The current tensions in South Sudan arise from political discord between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, exacerbated by governmental changes and militia violence. This precarious situation, along with the looming threat of renewed civil war, underscores the urgent need for dialogue and support from the international community. Without effective intervention and collaboration between the leaders, South Sudan risks reverting to the destructive power struggles of the past, perpetuating a cycle of unrest and humanitarian crises.

Original Source: www.dw.com