Syria’s Recent Violence: Assessing the Risk of Civil War

This article analyzes the recent surge in violence in Syria, primarily driven by loyalists of ousted President Bashar al-Assad. It explores the implications for potential civil war and highlights the efforts of new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa towards stabilizing the country. Despite external pressures, the possibilities for internal recovery remain, provided economic and minority rights issues are addressed.

Syria has recently experienced a significant increase in violence, with reports indicating that hundreds, including many civilians, have lost their lives. The resurgence of violence stems from an uprising by loyalists of former President Bashar al-Assad against the new regime led by Ahmed al-Sharaa and the militant group Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda. While this unrest raises concerns about a potential return to civil war, there are indications that stability may still be possible under current leadership.

Despite the actions by Assad’s loyalists, their unpopularity due to historical abuses makes a wider civil war unlikely at this juncture. Al-Sharaa’s administration must be cautious not to exacerbate tensions by imposing strict Islamic laws or neglecting economic improvements, given that Syria’s economy has suffered a dramatic contraction. Al-Sharaa appears aware of these challenges, advocating for minority rights and seeking economic relief from neighboring countries to stabilize the struggling economy.

Allegations of Iranian meddling in Syria have surfaced, but verification of these claims remains challenging amidst widespread misinformation. The geopolitical landscape includes various actors, including Russia, Turkey, and Israel, each of which has vested interests in the outcome of Syria’s internal conflict. Major Arab nations exhibit caution regarding the Islamist influence in Syria, focusing instead on internal development and regional crises rather than engaging in further proxy conflicts.

While the Trump administration has indicated a reluctance to intervene directly in Syria, recent negotiations between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces mark a significant development. This integration aims to unify the country’s military and security forces and may facilitate further collaboration. Turkey’s involvement remains critical as it seeks a government aligned with its interests to mitigate perceived threats and enhance its influence within the region.

In conclusion, while Syria currently faces a troubling spike in violence, the potential for a new civil war appears limited for the time being. Governance under Ahmed al-Sharaa may play a pivotal role in steering the country towards stability, provided that the government prioritizes economic recovery and respects minority rights. The regional and international responses remain crucial in shaping Syria’s future, especially as actors like Turkey and the United States navigate their interests during this tumultuous period.

Original Source: www.cfr.org