Impact of Climate Change and Urbanization on Gaborone’s Flooding Events

In February 2025, severe flooding in southern Botswana and eastern South Africa resulted in 31 deaths and the displacement of 5,000 people. A study indicated human-induced climate change likely amplified rainfall intensity, while insufficient urban infrastructure contributed to the flooding’s catastrophic effects. Ongoing efforts aim to enhance resilience through improved infrastructure and disaster preparedness plans.

In February 2025, southern Botswana and eastern South Africa experienced substantial rainfall that resulted in severe flooding. The tragic event resulted in at least 31 fatalities, including six children in Gaborone, and displaced over 5,000 individuals. The flooding disrupted transportation, closed government schools, and left several areas isolated, complicating emergency response efforts.

A comprehensive study involving researchers from various countries aimed to assess the influence of climate change on the extraordinary precipitation leading to the floods. Specifically, they focused on the maximum rainfall registered over five days, particularly in areas severely affected. Gaborone, along with other urbanized locations, frequently suffers from flooding due to inadequate drainage systems that have not adapted to increasing population density and urban growth.

The 5-day heavy rainfall event observed in February 2025 is deemed a rare occurrence, estimated to happen only once every 10 to 200 years. Based on weather station data, this event had a return period of about 40 years, translating to a 2-3% annual chance of recurrence. The analysis further indicated that such intense rainfall events would have been greatly diminished in a cooler climate.

The study also analyzed data from climate models to evaluate human-induced climate change’s impact on extreme rainfall. While some models suggested a significant rise in extreme rainfall frequencies, others indicated no change or a decline. The variability among models may stem from the comparability of climate change forces with natural fluctuations, complicating precise quantification of climate change’s role.

Research projected that a warming climate of 2.6 °C above pre-industrial levels would likely amplify the magnitude of heavy rainfall events beyond that observed in 2025. Three main conclusions emerged: a strong historical trend in observed datasets, increased water vapor in warmer air potentially intensifying rainfall, and the general pattern of heightened intensity in future warming models.

The detrimental impacts witnessed during the February flood were predominantly linked to urban infrastructure inadequately designed to cope with severe rainfall. Disruptions took place across various sectors, including healthcare facilities. To address these challenges, efforts are underway to enhance flood resilience through improved drainage systems, land-use regulations, and disaster preparedness plans. Implementing an integrated approach focused on multi-hazard assessments could bolster urban planning, infrastructure, and early warning systems against future extreme weather events.

The floods in February 2025, which resulted in significant loss of life and widespread disruption in Gaborone and surrounding areas, underscored the critical challenges posed by extreme rainfall exacerbated by climate change. Despite the difficulty in quantifying the precise impact of human-induced climate change, the evidence suggests that it has intensified rainfall events, which, compounded by inadequate infrastructure, led to catastrophic flooding. Ongoing efforts to enhance resilience, through improved urban infrastructure and comprehensive disaster preparedness, are essential to mitigate the impacts of future extreme weather events.

Original Source: www.worldweatherattribution.org