Kenya: Heavy Downpours Expected as Long Rains Season Commences

The Kenya Meteorological Department warns of heavy rainfall as the March-April-May Long Rains season begins. Director David Gikungu reports that significant rain is expected across various regions, including the highlands and parts of Nairobi. Specific criteria define the season’s onset, with varying rainfall thresholds based on location. Public alertness is encouraged due to potential dry spells that may follow initial downpours.

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued a warning to the public regarding potential heavy downpours as the March-April-May (MAM) Long Rains season commences. KMD Director David Gikungu affirmed that rainfall is anticipated to persist across several regions in the country this week, encouraging individuals to take necessary precautions to safeguard against possible flooding.

Furthermore, Gikungu highlighted that isolated heavy rainfall events are probable, particularly in the highlands surrounding the Rift Valley, including areas in Nairobi County, the Lake Victoria Basin, and northeastern Kenya. Initial rainfall data recorded from March 3 to 9, 2025, indicate a significant increase in rainfall, predominantly in the southeastern lowlands and northeastern regions.

The week of March 10 to 16, 2025, officially marked the MAM 2025 season’s commencement, especially for the highlands west of the Rift Valley and the Lake Victoria Basin. Similar precipitation patterns were reported in the Rift Valley and isolated regions of the southeastern lowlands and Isiolo County, reflecting the season’s progressive onset.

KMD elaborated on the definition of the MAM Long Rains season’s onset, which is determined when two main criteria are satisfied: a wet spell that yields at least 20 mm of rainfall over three consecutive days, followed by no dry spell within the subsequent 21 days. For northern areas, a slightly reduced rainfall threshold of 10 mm over three days is permissible to indicate the onset of the rains.

The remaining regions of the highlands and southeastern lowlands are forecasted to experience the season’s onset this week. Gikungu also indicated that the northeastern region is poised to begin receiving rains either this week (March 18-24) or next (March 25-31), although dry spells may follow.

Moreover, KMD projected that the northwestern parts of Kenya and coastal regions would encounter intermittent rainfall throughout the end of March 2025. The coastal region is expected to experience peak rainfall in May, with onset likely occurring in April.

In summary, the KMD has cautioned about the onset of heavy downpours during the MAM Long Rains season, emphasizing the need for public vigilance. The rainfall is set to affect various regions, with different thresholds for different areas marking the season’s beginning. A focus on preparing for possible dry spells and understanding rainfall patterns can help mitigate the impact of these conditions.

Original Source: allafrica.com