Potential Cyclone Formation Off Western Australia Signals Busy Season Ahead

A tropical low is expected to develop off the WA coast within a week, with heavy rains and potential flooding across northern Australia. Nine cyclones have been confirmed since December, indicating an active season. Should the low strengthen, it will be named Courtney or Dianne, while continued rainfall and cyclone activity are anticipated into early April.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has announced the possibility of the next tropical cyclone forming off the north coast of Western Australia (WA) within a week. A tropical low is projected to develop approximately 500 kilometers offshore by Friday, potentially moving toward the coast and intensifying into a cyclone. Since December, nine tropical cyclones have been confirmed, marking the highest activity in three years and approaching the long-term average.

If the developing low reaches cyclone status, it will be named either Courtney or Dianne. Meanwhile, an incursion of humid air is expected to produce widespread heavy rainfall across northern Australia over the next fortnight. Significant rainfall has already occurred in Queensland, with Townsville experiencing 301 millimeters in just 24 hours, the highest since January 1998.

The presence of the monsoon trough suggests continued rain across the Northern Territory (NT) and the Kimberley region in WA as it aligns with conducive conditions for tropical cyclones. The current enhancement of tropical activity may continue for several weeks, leading to above-average rainfall throughout the season and potentially making this one of the most active cyclone seasons in recorded history.

The tropical cyclone risk is associated with an elongated belt of winds known as the monsoon trough, which generates most tropical cyclones in the Australian region. A developing low exists south of the Cocos Islands, presenting no threat to mainland Australia. The upcoming low near WA is expected to have water temperatures over 31 degrees Celsius, allowing for increased cyclone development potential as it approaches the coast this weekend.

Despite the cyclone’s likelihood, the Bureau reports only a 10% chance of intensification this weekend, with a gradual rise to about 30% early next week as per weather models. Current forecasts suggest that the formation will likely remain offshore but could move parallel to the Pilbara coast. However, cyclone forecasting remains inherently uncertain.

Increased rainfall stemming from the humid air has impacted other regions, with significant precipitation affecting the North Tropical Coast and Lower Burdekin. Recent totals include 872 millimeters at Garradunga, causing flooding along rivers, including a short-lived major flood warning on the Bohle River. Rainfall has also reached inland northern Queensland, while the central outback is seeing cloud formation due to tropical moisture influx.

Forecasts predict that rainfall will continue across northern Australia, with possible flooding conditions as the monsoon establishes itself. Average rainfalls exceeding 100 millimeters are anticipated for Kimberley, central NT, and northern Queensland. Longer-term projections indicate a likelihood of persistent rains through early April, with up to an 80% chance of median rainfall across northern regions.

Should three more storms occur this autumn, the season’s tally would reach twelve, rendering it the busiest Australian cyclone season in 19 years.

In summary, Australia is on the verge of a busy cyclone season, with a potential tropical cyclone developing near the northern WA coast. This could lead to heavy rains and flooding over the coming weeks, particularly in northern regions. The Bureau of Meteorology’s forecasts reflect increased cyclone formation likelihood, indicating heightened tropical activity throughout the wet season, which may set records for cyclone occurrences in the region.

Original Source: www.abc.net.au