Projections for Multi-Hazard Displacement in Somalia: Q2 2025 Analysis

Somalia’s HNRP for Q2 2025 targets 30 districts, projecting 124,249 total displacements. The top five districts, Banadir, Baydhaba, Luuq, Kismaayo, and Afmadow, are expected to account for 95,689 displacements, primarily due to drought but with notable conflict effects in certain areas.

In the second quarter of 2025, Somalia’s Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) focuses on 30 prioritized districts, among which 11 are identified as the top 15 districts likely to experience significant displacement. Overall, it is projected that 124,249 displacements will occur during this period.

The five districts anticipated to face the highest displacements include Banadir, Baydhaba, Luuq, Kismaayo, and Afmadow, accounting for a total of 95,689 displacements or 41% of the overall projections. Notably, Banadir is expected to see 39,251 displacements, reflecting a 4% increase from previous data, while Baydhaba is forecasted to have 21,053 displacements with a 3% increase.

Further disaggregation reveals Luuq is projected to experience 13,098 displacements, with a 12% increase, Kismaayo at 12,862 (7% increase), and Afmadow, which is likely to witness 9,425 displacements, marking a significant 19% increase. The predominant driver of these displacements is expected to be drought, although Luuq will experience the most conflict-driven displacements, with 56% of movements originating from this district, followed by Afmadow with 39%.

In conclusion, the projections for multi-hazard displacement in Somalia during the second quarter of 2025 indicate significant challenges ahead. With drought acting as the leading cause of displacement, the conflict within specific districts such as Luuq and Afmadow also demands urgent attention. Effective humanitarian response strategies will be crucial to address the needs of the affected populations in the highlighted districts.

Original Source: reliefweb.int