Forecast Indicates Normal Monsoon for India in 2025

India is expected to have a normal southwest monsoon season, as indicated by forecasts lacking El Nino conditions. This scenario is crucial for agriculture, impacting both kharif and rabi crops. The India Meteorological Department is set to release further predictions shortly, while affirming the favorable prospects for rainfall this year.

According to weather expert Akshay Deoras from the National Centre for Atmosphere Science at the University of Reading, India is expected to experience a ‘normal’ south-west monsoon this year due to the lack of El Nino conditions. He referenced forecasts from multiple reputable meteorological institutions indicating average to above-average rainfall during the monsoon season, which lasts from June to September.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is anticipated to issue its initial monsoon prediction shortly. If the forecasts from international agencies hold true, this would mark the second consecutive year of normal monsoon conditions for India, following a below-normal rainfall experience in 2023. This normal monsoon is crucial as it accounts for 70-75% of the annual precipitation, significantly impacting agriculture and water reservoir levels.

Deoras emphasized that the models predict an overall normal monsoon season, largely due to the absence of any detrimental influence from the El Nino Southern Oscillation. However, he noted it is premature to assess whether the monsoon will commence on time in Kerala or experience delays. The IMD has also indicated a 75% chance of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation transitioning to a neutral state by April 2025, which is favorable for the upcoming monsoon.

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, assured that El Nino conditions would not affect this year’s monsoon. Additionally, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are anticipated during the season. In 2024, India experienced 8% more rainfall than the long-period average, contrary to 2023’s below-normal precipitation despite initial predictions of a regular monsoon.

Nearly 50% of India’s agricultural land relies on monsoon rains for the cultivation of kharif crops, including paddy, pulses, and oilseeds. Adequate monsoon rainfall is also essential for ensuring sufficient soil moisture necessary for sowing rabi, or winter crops, such as wheat and pulses. The southwest monsoon typically begins in Kerala by June 1 and spreads across the country by early July, gradually receding by mid-September and concluding by October 15.

The upcoming monsoon season in India is projected to be normal, as validated by credible forecasts absent of El Nino conditions. This positive outlook is critical for agriculture, providing essential precipitation for kharif and rabi crops while influencing overall water supply across the nation. Continuous monitoring by the IMD will be vital to confirm the timely onset and progression of the monsoon.

Original Source: www.financialexpress.com