Syria’s Transitional Government: Challenges and Opportunities Post-Assad

Ghassan Ibrahim offers an analysis of Syria’s journey post-Assad, highlighting cautious optimism amidst significant challenges. He outlines the transitional government’s hurdles, ranging from economic distress to regional relations with Turkiye and Iran. The article emphasizes the importance of external support and the need to lift sanctions to promote stability and recovery in Syria.

As Syria embarks on a delicate journey away from years of Assad family rule, there is a sense of cautious optimism as analyzed by Ghassan Ibrahim, a Syria expert based in London. In his discussion on the Arab News show “Frankly Speaking,” Ibrahim highlighted the obstacles and opportunities confronting the new transitional government led by President Ahmad Al-Sharaa.

Despite the optimism, Ibrahim emphasizes the significant challenges faced by the Syrian government, including institutional collapse, the brain drain, rampant poverty, ongoing insecurity, and crippling sanctions. “The situation in Syria is not that easy,” he stated, noting that Assad’s departure left the nation in disarray.

With over 90 percent of the population living below the poverty line and essential infrastructure either destroyed or underutilized, the economic outlook remains dire. Ibrahim pointed out that despite Syria’s abundant natural resources, such as oil, gas, and minerals, they are largely unexploited. “There is not any good environment to tell to the people come back,” he remarked, emphasizing the need for a conducive environment to attract skilled individuals and investors.

Interestingly, although some violence has occurred, the absence of widespread sectarian warfare post-Assad represents a significant achievement. Ibrahim remarked on this, stating that Syria has avoided a major sectarian conflict despite occasional flare-ups, suggesting a promising yet laborious path ahead.

The foreign policy initiatives of President Al-Sharaa are pivotal. His inaugural visit to Saudi Arabia was not merely symbolic but intended to realign Syria within a framework of modernity and collaborative stability, aligning with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. Additionally, Al-Sharaa’s visit to the UAE could be crucial for reintegrating Syria into the regional fold.

There are risks associated with improving ties with Turkiye, as its involvement may complicate dynamics with both the Kurds and Israel. Ibrahim warned that Turkiye’s engagement could heighten tensions rather than resolve them, indicating potential vulnerabilities for Syria.

Amidst rising tensions with Israel, the new Syrian leadership aims to maintain a calculated approach, prioritizing stability over aggression. Ibrahim observed that this leadership understands the importance of managing relations with Israel to foster peace.

Conversely, Iranian influence remains a destabilizing element. Ibrahim cautioned that Iran, having a vested interest in Syrian turmoil, continues to support militias and sabotage stability. The Syrian administration’s distancing from Iranian influence suggests a desire for a peaceful reset in those relations.

The impact of sanctions from Western nations poses an additional barrier to Syria’s recovery, adversely affecting the new government’s ability to function effectively. Ibrahim emphasized that these sanctions primarily harm the ordinary Syrian populace, calling into question their effectiveness in promoting political change.

The precarious situation, highlighted by recent violence attributed to former regime loyalists, showcases the fragility of peace in Syria. While Al-Sharaa has aimed for clemency, this approach may have inadvertently allowed elements of discord to resurface.

Ibrahim critiqued the composition of the new cabinet, arguing that it lacks inclusivity, particularly among diverse ethnic and religious groups. This reflection points to the intricate balancing act President Al-Sharaa must navigate in unifying his administration.

Negotiations with Turkiye regarding defense systems also expose underlying tensions, as Syria strives to avoid becoming a pawn in regional conflicts. Ibrahim noted the Syrian intention to mediate between Turkiye and Kurdish forces, seeking to relieve tensions without escalating hostilities.

Despite pursuing engagement with Western nations, Syria’s relationship with Russia remains significant. Recognizing Moscow’s role as a pragmatic ally, Ibrahim suggested that Russia’s ties with Israel could facilitate negotiations beneficial to all parties involved.

Lastly, Ibrahim clarified misunderstandings regarding comments about potential extremist reactions to Israeli actions. He reassured that Syria aims to avoid becoming a base for attacks against other nations, signaling a shift in diplomatic language and strategy, particularly regarding normalization with Israel.

In summary, the future of Syria post-Assad is tenuous, characterized by a blend of cautious optimism and formidable challenges. Ibrahim’s insights underscore the necessity for external support, internal reforms, and regional cooperation to foster stability and growth in the nation.

In conclusion, Syria’s transition from the Assad regime presents both optimism and multifaceted challenges. The insights by Ghassan Ibrahim reveal the critical need for resources, regional alliances, and effective governance to ensure stability and development. Moreover, external sanctions continue to impede the new government’s efforts, necessitating reconsideration by the international community. Moving forward, the balance of power, both regionally and internally, remains crucial for Syria’s aspiration towards normalization and prosperity.

Original Source: www.arabnews.pk