Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol Forecast: Expected Weakening Before Landfall

Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol has rapidly intensified to category 4 but is expected to weaken before landfall in Western Australia this weekend, likely making landfall as a category 1 system. Heavy rains and damaging winds are forecasted for the Kimberley region.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol has been classified as a category 4 cyclone following rapid intensification on Wednesday. However, forecasts indicate that the system will weaken before it reaches the land in Western Australia this weekend. Initially identified as a category 1 cyclone on Tuesday night, Errol dramatically escalated to category 4 by Wednesday night.

At 2 AM AWST on Thursday, Errol remapped as a category 4 system located approximately 510 kilometers northwest of Broome. Following a westward trajectory in the preceding days, the cyclone unexpectedly pivoted left, moving into less conducive environmental conditions. Consequently, this directional shift is expected to facilitate a notable weakening as Errol approaches the coast.

The Bureau of Meteorology released a track map shortly before 3 AM AWST on Thursday, illustrating that Errol is projected to weaken significantly as it nears the Kimberley coast on Thursday and Friday. Current estimates suggest Errol will make landfall as either a category 1 tropical cyclone or a tropical low by Friday night or Saturday morning.

Despite the anticipated weakening, Errol is expected to generate heavy rainfall across parts of the Kimberley from Friday into the weekend. Additionally, it may lead to damaging winds as it nears and crosses the coastline, with the most significant impacts forecasted between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay. Notably, Errol represents the eighth severe tropical cyclone recorded in Australian waters this season, marking the highest frequency of such events in 19 years.

In summary, Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol is set to weaken from category 4 to either category 1 or a tropical low before landfall in Western Australia this weekend. Although the cyclone is diminishing, it is still anticipated to deliver considerable rainfall and strong winds, particularly in the Kimberley region. Its occurrence as the eighth severe tropical cyclone this season underscores the active cyclonic developments in Australian waters this year.

Original Source: www.weatherzone.com.au