NOAA Predicts Above-Average Storm Activity for Upcoming Hurricane Season

NOAA forecasts an active Atlantic hurricane season with 13-19 named storms expected, including 3-5 major hurricanes. Preparation is crucial, as staffing shortages impact many National Weather Service offices. The forecast is influenced by warmer ocean temperatures and changing climate patterns.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting an active Atlantic hurricane season with storm activity expected to exceed historical averages. “We’re really looking at an above normal season,” stated Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. Their projections indicate 13 to 19 named storms, six to ten of which could escalate into hurricanes with winds reaching or exceeding 74 miles per hour. Furthermore, NOAA anticipates three to five major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or higher.

While the forecasts provide a quantitative outlook, they do not specify the precise locations or times of potential landfalls along the U.S. coastlines. As Graham emphasized, preparation is essential now. “It’s a good time to go out there and get your supplies and your kit and put it together,” he advised. This way, residents may avoid long wait times for essential items like plywood, gas, or water when a storm approaches.

A rise in ocean temperatures is thought to contribute to the above-average forecast, which analysts associate with climate change. Graham explained that, “The warmer ocean temperatures is really consistent with us being in a more active season,” reflecting the influence of global warming on storm frequency and intensity. Additionally, forecasters note that increased activity from the West African Monsoon can generate storms that cross the Atlantic towards the U.S.

However, it is troubling that many National Weather Service offices are facing staffing shortages. This follows actions from the prior administration, which included workforce reductions and voluntary retirement programs. This year alone, nearly 600 staff members have departed from the National Weather Service. Despite this, Laura Grimm, acting NOAA administrator, reassured the public that the National Hurricane Center is sufficiently staffed, stating, “We are fully staffed at the hurricane center, and we definitely are ready to go.”

The local forecasting offices, however, continue to struggle with vacancies, a critical issue as these offices handle the local implications of hurricanes, such as flooding. Graham expressed his commitment to ensuring that these offices are equipped with necessary resources during hurricane threats, emphasizing the importance of ramping up staffing to meet long-term needs.

The hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, typically intensifies during the late summer and early fall months. NOAA’s predictions align somewhat with forecasts from independent research entities, which project an average of eight hurricanes for the 2025 season. In the previous year, NOAA predicted an exceptionally active season, which resulted in 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes, with five making landfall on the U.S. coast. Notable storms included Hurricane Helene, which caused significant flooding and loss of life, and Hurricane Milton, which brought devastating tornadoes with it.

As scientific assessments indicate, global warming is increasing the likelihood of rapid intensification for tropical cyclones; a 2023 study found that the likelihood of such events increased by 29% in the Atlantic from 2001 to 2020 compared to earlier decades. This reality means that vigilance and preparedness in the face of an active hurricane season is more important than ever.

In summary, NOAA’s forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season predicts above-average storm activity, driven largely by warmer ocean waters and other climate-related factors. As residents prepare for this season, the National Weather Service underscores the significance of having readiness plans in place. Compounding concerns are staffing shortages in many forecasting offices, although the National Hurricane Center remains adequately resourced. With the start of the season approaching, vigilance and preparation are essential.

Original Source: www.nbcnews.com