Duterte’s ICC Arrest Heightens Stakes for Upcoming Philippine Elections

The arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has raised tensions ahead of the May midterm elections, impacting the electoral strategies of his family and their rivals, the Marcoses. While the Dutertes seek to maintain their influence in Davao City, the Marcos administration is positioned advantageously for the elections. Key political analysts express concerns over the potential repercussions for candidates amidst public sentiment regarding Duterte’s legacy and ongoing legal challenges facing his family.

The recent arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte by the International Criminal Court (ICC) has intensified the competitive landscape for the upcoming May midterm elections. Analysts have indicated that Duterte’s transfer to custody heralds significant implications, especially following his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte’s, impeachment by lawmakers a month earlier. The political rivalry appears to escalate amidst an already charged atmosphere dominated by the powerful Duterte and Marcos families.

The midterm elections were poised to be a fierce contest, particularly between the Dutertes and the Marcoses, who were once former allies. Jean Franco, a political analyst from the University of the Philippines, elucidates that the Marcos faction might intensify efforts to diminish the Duterte influence, fearing potential retribution from them. The alliance that previously led the two families to victory in the 2022 elections deteriorated under the strain of pressures surrounding Duterte’s controversial presidency.

Despite the turmoil, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. possesses considerable advantages, including administrative resources for upcoming elections. The Dutertes are preparing to secure roles in their Davao City stronghold; former President Duterte is campaigning for mayor while both of his sons seek senior positions. Concurrently, Marcos supports a group of senatorial candidates, while Duterte allies also seek Senate positions, positioning themselves for the impending impeachment trial of Sara Duterte due in July.

Political analysts, such as Aryes Arugay, express that the electoral atmosphere remains unpredictable. Sara Duterte’s ambition for the 2028 presidential race meets challenges due to her current impeachment troubles. Ronald Llamas contends that a potential uprising against the Marcos administration by the Dutertes is possible, particularly given the recent events.

Reports from military sources indicate stability within the armed forces despite rumors of divisions stemming from Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest. The Philippine National Police has enhanced nationwide security measures in response to these developments. In pre-election surveys, candidates linked to Duterte, like Sen. Christopher “Bong” Go and Sen. Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, have emerged as preferred candidates, although their political futures could be severely impacted by the ICC proceedings.

Candidates are currently treading carefully, evaluating public sentiment post-Duterte’s arrest, as many await broader public demonstrations that could influence their campaigns. Analysts note previous high approval ratings for the ICC case against Duterte, highlighting a consistent trend of unfavorable public sentiment regarding his drug war.

As for Sara Duterte’s trajectory toward the 2028 elections, uncertainties abound. Analysts caution that various legal and political challenges she faces, including ongoing impeachment proceedings, could have dire implications. While her current popularity suggests potential for success, observers remain skeptical regarding the lasting impact of recent controversies on her political viability.

The arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte by the International Criminal Court significantly alters the dynamics of the impending May midterm elections in the Philippines. As both the Duterte and Marcos families grapple with the consequences of this event, the political climate remains fraught with uncertainty. Key players are closely monitoring public sentiment and the unfolding political landscape, with particular attention on the implications for Vice President Sara Duterte’s future aspirations. The circumstances surrounding the approaching elections reflect a high-stakes scenario, where alliances may shift dramatically in response to ongoing developments.

Original Source: www.benarnews.org