Overview of Tropical Cyclone Courtney and Impacts on the Australian Season

Tropical Cyclone Courtney is a Category 1 system that developed northwest of Australia on March 26. The season has seen an increase in severe cyclones, with record warm waters contributing to their intensity. An active monsoon may lead to more cyclones forming in the coming week, and DTN APAC offers essential services to help businesses prepare for severe weather.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney emerged as a Category 1 system on March 26, representing the eighth cyclone of the Australian season. The cyclone developed from a tropical low situated south of Bali and progressed west-southwest over several days. By early Wednesday, Courtney was approximately 900 kilometers northwest of Exmouth, as confirmed by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Forecast models indicate that Tropical Cyclone Courtney will swiftly move to the west due to a high-pressure ridge located to the south. The cyclone may pass within 500 kilometers south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Friday; however, a direct impact on island communities or the Australian mainland is deemed unlikely.

The 2024-25 Australian tropical cyclone season commenced with Cyclone Robyn in late November but progressed slowly thereafter. Notably, from mid-January to early April, six of the eight total cyclones formed, with all achieving Category 3 or higher status, encompassing a significant 75% of the season’s cyclones. Cyclones Zelia and Alfred, which caused damages exceeding 2 billion dollars, represented a particularly destructive portion of the season.

The intensity of tropical cyclones aligns with phenomenally elevated sea surface temperatures around Australia, which have reached record warm levels from October 2024 to February 2025. This climatic phenomenon has notably fueled the heightened cyclone activity observed throughout the summer.

In the coming week, the risk of additional tropical system developments is elevated due to an active monsoon in northern Australia, spurred by a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A tropical low, designated 28U, is expected to organize off the northwest Kimberley coast, with a moderate chance of intensification into a cyclone. However, proximity to land may inhibit stronger development prior to landfall, likely occurring on Saturday.

Regardless of whether tropical low 28U evolves into a cyclone, significant moisture will provoke heavy rainfall and potential flooding across the Kimberley region, with totals expected to reach 100-200mm and isolated areas possibly exceeding 300-400mm. As the MJO weakens in the first week of April, further cyclone developments may be curtailed.

DTN APAC offers essential forecasting and alert services to aid businesses in navigating the impacts of severe weather events. With real-time updates and a commitment to provide seven-day forecasts, DTN APAC empowers organizations to prepare for and respond to low-pressure systems effectively. Their comprehensive weather intelligence enables informed decision-making regarding personnel safety and operational adjustments, ensuring a proactive approach to impending storms.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney has been identified as a Category 1 system, marking the eighth cyclone of the Australian season. The cyclone’s formation reflects a broader trend of intense tropical cyclone activity, influenced by warmer sea temperatures and an active monsoon. DTN APAC offers critical forecasting and alert services to help businesses mitigate the impact of severe weather, empowering them to make timely decisions and safeguard their operations.

Original Source: apac.dtn.com