Ending a 40-Year Kurdish Insurgency: A Pivotal Moment for Turkey and Syria

The Kurdish insurgency, lasting 40 years, is set to conclude amid shifting Middle Eastern dynamics following the 2023 Gaza war. Abdullah Öcalan’s call for peace signifies a notable strategic shift as the PKK prepares for disbandment without military intervention, raising concerns for Turkey about regional Kurdish influence, particularly in relation to Israel. This historical turning point could redefine Kurdish aspirations and regional power balances.

In February 2025, a significant historical milestone occurred with the conclusion of a 40-year Kurdish insurgency, a development spurred by the ongoing Gaza conflict which escalated in October 2023. This shift marks a pivotal moment for both Turkey and Syria, with implications for the international landscape. The potential collapse of the al-Assad regime raises concerns about Kurdish influence possibly being used by Israel against Turkish interests.

Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), has initiated a process leading toward the disbandment of the insurgency. Notably, this conclusion of conflict is anticipated to be settled through a voluntary decision rather than military intervention, signaling a transformative moment for the Turkish Republic, which has faced Kurdish insurgencies since its formation.

Öcalan, now serving his life sentence on the prison island of İmralı, drew parallels to Nelson Mandela’s incarceration. He issued a ‘Call for Peace and Democratic Society’ on February 27, 2025, encouraging the PKK to lay down arms. The organization responded positively, reflecting a notable shift in its direction led by its founder and leader.

The PKK, considered by some to be the most enduring Kurdish insurgency, has its roots in multiple revolts against the Turkish state since 1925. Historically, the suppression of Kurdish identity has led to significant uprisings, exacerbating tensions and regional instability. Abdullah Öcalan began the modern PKK armed struggle in 1984, eventually being captured in 1999 after an extensive manhunt, aided by Western intelligence services.

Following his imprisonment, Öcalan’s ideological transformation enhanced his influence, especially among Syrian Kurds who expanded their control during the civil war, supported by U.S. military assistance against ISIS. Recent developments since the October 2023 Hamas attack have drastically altered Middle Eastern political dynamics, igniting fears within Turkey regarding the Kurds being co-opted as a strategic asset by Israel which poses risks to Turkish security and territorial integrity.

Historically, Israeli relationships with the Kurdish population trace back to the early 1960s, with connections to the Kurdish insurgency in Iraq. The potential for active Israeli support of Kurdish aspirations in Syria and Iran could catalyze Turkish apprehension, as over half of the world’s Kurdish population resides within Turkey. The emergence of Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq and most recently in Syria offers a framework for broader Kurdish nationalism, thereby necessitating decisive action from Turkey amidst these critical transformations in the region.

The backdrop of the escalating Gaza conflict and the potential destabilization of the Iranian regime opens new avenues for Kurdish aspirations, compelling Turkey to confront its policies regarding Kurdish populations.

In summary, the conclusion of the Kurdish insurgency represents a significant turning point for both Turkey and the region. The anticipated disbandment of the PKK under Abdullah Öcalan’s leadership demonstrates a shift in conflict resolution strategies. With emerging geopolitical dynamics influenced by the Gaza conflict, Turkey faces new challenges regarding Kurdish nationalism and its relationship with Israel. As the region continues to evolve, Turkey must navigate its complex relationships to maintain stability and territorial integrity.

Original Source: www.realinstitutoelcano.org