A Look Back at 2025 State Primary Election Competitiveness

• 2025 state primary elections witnessed the lowest share of open seats since 2011.
• The overall percentage of contested primaries was falling short of the average from previous years.
• Three Democratic incumbents lost their primaries in New Jersey, raising questions about challenges ahead for similar candidates.
• Virginia and Wisconsin also held primaries, but experienced no losses for incumbents in executive roles this year.
• This year recorded one of the lowest rates of incumbent defeats in nearly a decade of elections.

Trends in Open Seats and Contested Primaries

In the state primary elections of 2025, a noticeable trend has emerged suggesting a decline in competitiveness compared to previous years. Fewer seats were open for election this year than in any odd-numbered year since at least 2011. According to Ballotpedia’s data for 2025, the overall competitiveness and incumbency statistics outline significant changes in states like New Jersey, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The data indicates that the percentage of open seats was at a mere 5.9%. This marks a decline from past years where there were typically higher levels of openness in state legislative elections. Furthermore, the percentage of contested primaries stood only at 17.6%, which is below the 19.7% average calculated from 2011 through 2023, pointing toward a less dynamic political landscape this election cycle.

Incumbent Losses in Legislative Primaries

Additionally, incumbency statistics reveal that 22.4% of incumbents faced challenges in 2025, which does slightly surpass the average of 21.8% observed in the last seven election cycles. New Jersey witnessed primary elections for both governor and the General Assembly, while Virginia held primaries for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and the House of Delegates. Wisconsin, on the other hand, conducted a non-partisan primary for the position of superintendent of public instruction. All together, these three states accounted for 51 primaries out of a total of 289 that were possible, aiming to fill 185 seats. It’s interesting to note that no incumbents were ousted in any state executive primary elections across these three states, but three incumbents did lose in state legislative primaries, with all losses occurring in New Jersey.

Historical Context of Incumbent Defeats

Within the context of New Jersey’s state legislative primaries, three Democratic incumbents were defeated this year. This number accounts for just 1.7% of incumbents seeking re-election and represents a staggering 7.9% of those incumbents who faced contested primaries. A total of 172 incumbents had sought re-election across both New Jersey and Virginia. This year recorded one of the lower totals for incumbent losses in odd-year cycles since 2011, trailing only behind 2013 and 2017, where this figure was minimal. As we analyze these figures, it raises questions about electoral competitiveness, the nature of primary elections, and will there be shifts in the 2026 elections to mirror more dynamic contests.

The state primary elections in 2025 showcased a notable decline in competitiveness, with fewer open seats and lower percentages of contested primaries compared to prior odd years. While incumbents in executive roles maintained their standings, New Jersey saw some legislative incumbents defeated. Moving forward, these trends may point to a need for a reassessment of strategies in future elections as the dynamics continue to evolve.