Young Population Believe BNP to Get 39% of Votes, Jamaat 21%, NCP 16% in National Polls: Sanem Survey

• BNP is projected to receive 38.76% of votes in upcoming elections.
• Jamaat-e-Islami is believed to gather around 21.45% of the youth vote.
• The National Citizen Party (NCP) is expected to achieve 15.84% of votes.
• 40.89% of respondents express moderate optimism about free elections.
• 76.78% of young respondents plan to vote in the national election.

Sanem Survey Unveils Youth Political Preferences

The recent survey conducted by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling, known as Sanem, reveals some surprising insights into the political inclinations of Bangladesh’s youth ahead of the 13th national election. Specifically, it indicates that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is expected to secure a noteworthy 38.76% of the votes, marking it as a significant player in the impending electoral contest. The survey further suggests that Jamaat-e-Islami might achieve around 21.45% of the total votes, showcasing a changing political dynamic among young voters in Bangladesh.

The Emergence of New Political Alliances

In analyzing the results further, the National Citizen Party (NCP), which emerged from last year’s upheaval against the Awami League (AL), is projected to gather about 15.84% of votes. The political landscape is increasingly complicated by the potential for NCP, Jamaat, and other Islamist factions to form an electoral alliance. This is particularly significant as participants in the survey also indicated that the ousted ruling party, the Awami League, could potentially receive 15.02% of the votes if permitted to participate in the elections. These projections highlight how unpredictable the upcoming elections might be, especially considering that 1,935 respondents participated in this particular portion of the survey, which had 2,003 total respondents.

Youth Engagement and Optimism for Elections

When asked about their expectations for a fair electoral process, a notable 40.89% of the young participants expressed moderate optimism regarding the integrity of the elections. Meanwhile, 27.91% were reported as very optimistic, while only 6.04% felt completely pessimistic about the election’s fairness. On voting intentions, an encouraging 76.78% of young voters indicated they were planning to cast their votes, though 4.14% said they wouldn’t vote, and 5.09% remained undecided. With the general elections anticipated in the first half of 2026, these sentiments and intentions could shape the outcome tremendously, reflecting a young electorate that is both engaged and concerned about the democratic process.

In essence, the Sanem survey sheds light on the optimism and political preferences of Bangladesh’s youth, positioning the BNP as the frontrunner while indicating potential challenges from Jamaat and the NCP. With significant youth engagement and varying levels of optimism about fair elections, the results serve as a reminder of the shifting political tides as the nation approaches its next electoral challenge. The survey also points to the potential for new political alliances, which could drastically influence the balance of power during the forthcoming elections.