Forecast of Above-Normal Rainfall for Greater Horn of Africa: Implications and Preparedness Measures

Above-normal rainfall is anticipated in the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024, covering areas such as Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. The forecast suggests a need for increased preparedness due to possible flooding risks, especially in South Sudan and Sudan, highlighting the importance of seasonal climate outlooks for sectors like agriculture and public health.

The Greater Horn of Africa is poised to experience above-normal rainfall from June to September 2024, as indicated by projections from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), a recognized regional climate center under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This significant rainy season represents a crucial period for the region, contributing over 90% of the annual rainfall in the northern sectors while supplying approximately 40% in southern areas. Major nations forecasted to receive these ample rains include Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan. Dr. Guleid Artan, the Director of ICPAC, has pointed out that the anticipated wetter conditions could evoke memories of flooding patterns witnessed in 1998 and 2010, raising concerns particularly for South Sudan and Sudan. As many countries recently impacted by severe flooding transition to the dry season during these months, the forecasting highlights the need for vigilance and preparedness. This includes nations such as Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, as well as regions in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda. The seasonal climate outlooks are indispensable for informed decision-making across vital sectors, including agriculture, public health, and water resource management. They are also integral components of the WMO’s initiative, Early Warnings for All, aiming to provide actionable intelligence for risk management. The latest forecast arose from discussions during the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, a collaborative event gathering climate experts, government representatives, non-governmental organizations, and stakeholders in climate-sensitive domains. For over twenty years, the WMO has facilitated these forums to furnish critical climate forecasts, promoting life-saving measures while buttressing agricultural productivity, food security, and effective disaster risk management. IPCAC applies an objective forecasting method informed by initialized seasonal predictions from nine Global Producing Centers (GPCs), employing various calibration techniques. The predictions for the upcoming season indicate a potentially early to normal onset in regions like central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan, though a delayed onset is likely in areas including Djibouti and parts of eastern and western Ethiopia. Additionally, the temperature forecast suggests a likelihood of warmer conditions prevailing across the region, particularly affecting northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.

The Greater Horn of Africa is critical for its agricultural and ecological diversity, which is significantly influenced by seasonal rainfall patterns. The months from June to September are particularly pivotal as they govern the majority of annual rainfall in the northern and western areas. Variations in rainfall during this period can hugely impact food security, water supplies, and disaster preparedness. The ICPAC plays an essential role in providing climate forecasts and information, crucial for stakeholders who depend on accurate weather predictions for planning and response initiatives, particularly in areas susceptible to climate variability and flooding.

In conclusion, the forecast of above-normal rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa from June to September 2024 highlights the urgency for preparedness in the face of potentially severe weather conditions. With historical precedents indicating risks of flooding, particularly in South Sudan and Sudan, it is vital for governments and relevant organizations to leverage this forecast for effective planning and response strategies to mitigate impacts on vulnerable populations and ecosystems.

Original Source: wmo.int