Cyclone Chido Strikes Mayotte: A Historic Devastation in the Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone Chido devastated Mayotte on December 14, 2023, with winds over 200 km/h, causing significant rainfall and destruction. Despite timely warnings, heavy loss of life occurred, prompting national mourning in France. Moving on to Mozambique, the cyclone raised questions about climate change factors in its intensity and trajectory, while forecasts predict a heightened cyclone season for the upcoming years.

Tropical cyclone Chido struck Mayotte on December 14, 2023, unleashing wind speeds exceeding 200 kilometers per hour and gusts surpassing 225 kilometers per hour. This catastrophic storm marked the most potent weather event to affect Mayotte in over nine decades, as indicated by Météo-France. Accompanying the fierce winds was torrential rainfall, reaching 176 millimeters within a twelve-hour span, coupled with dangerously high wave levels averaging over 5 meters.

The cyclone’s severe impacts were exacerbated by the vulnerability of the island’s infrastructure, as many residents live in informal housing. In response to the disaster, French President Emmanuel Macron declared a national period of mourning amidst initial reports suggesting that the death toll could reach into the hundreds. This tragic loss of life occurred despite effective pre-emptive warnings issued by Météo-France over 50 hours prior to the cyclone’s landfall, which involved an amber alert followed by escalated red and violet alerts.

Chido followed an atypical path, avoiding the larger island of Madagascar, which could have diminished its strength. Instead, it made a direct hit on Mayotte with full ferocity, engulfing the island in its eye. The cyclone proceeded to land in Mozambique on December 15, where it weakened but continued to deliver intense rainfall that affected Mozambique and Malawi as well.

Météo-France emphasized that although the influence of climate change on this event remains ambiguous, the cyclone’s catastrophic impact was primarily due to its path and direct approach to Mayotte. They commented, “The impacts of Chido are above all due to its track and the direct hit on Mayotte. This is an extremely rare event not seen for 90 years.” Furthermore, the organization’s recent seasonal forecast accurately anticipated an early start to the cyclone season, predicting normal to increased activity in the region for 2024-2025, projecting 9 to 13 systems with some potentially reaching tropical cyclone status.

The Indian Ocean region, particularly Mayotte, has a historical vulnerability to tropical cyclones, which are severe storm systems accompanied by strong winds and heavy rains. The occurrence of such powerful storms has dramatically increased concern regarding climate dynamics and potential changes. This particular cyclone, Chido, not only devastated infrastructure but also raised questions about preparedness and the capacity for early warning systems to mitigate loss of life. The involvement of Météo-France in monitoring and forecasting cyclone activity underscores the need for robust predictive models as climate trends evolve.

In summary, tropical cyclone Chido’s impact on Mayotte highlights the vulnerability of the region to extreme weather events, particularly given the challenges posed by inadequate housing structures and emergency preparedness. Although accurate warnings were issued, the severe consequences reflect the profound intensity of the cyclone and the need for improved resilience against future climatic disasters. As assessment of climate change’s impact continues, the forecasting efforts by Météo-France will play a crucial role in preparing for upcoming cyclone seasons.

Original Source: wmo.int