Tropical Cyclone Chido Devastates Mayotte, Impacting Lives and Infrastructure

On December 14, Tropical Cyclone Chido made landfall in Mayotte, delivering winds exceeding 200 km/h and causing severe damage. National mourning was declared due to the significant loss of life, despite timely warnings. The cyclone’s path was atypical, as it skirted Madagascar before impacting Mayotte and later Mozambique. The relationship between climate change and cyclone phenomenon remains uncertain, informing future forecasts of increased cyclone activity in the region.

On December 14, Tropical Cyclone Chido struck Mayotte, unleashing wind speeds over 200 km/h and gusts surpassing 225 km/h. Classified as the strongest storm to affect the island in nearly 90 years, the cyclone was further intensified by torrential rainfall exceeding 176 mm within just 12 hours and average wave heights over 5 meters. The storm’s ferocity even damaged some observational structures of Météo-France.

In response to the devastating impact, French President Emmanuel Macron declared a national mourning period. An extensive emergency relief operation was deployed amid alarming reports of numerous casualties on the island, known for its vulnerability to such powerful storms and prevalence of informal housing structures. Early warnings from Météo-France, issued over 50 hours prior, included an amber alert followed by red and a rare violet alert designation, indicating the storm’s seriousness.

Cyclone Chido deviated from the typical path of tropical cyclones, narrowly passing Madagascar, which could have otherwise diminished its intensity. Upon its direct hit, the cyclone completely enveloped Mayotte before transitioning to land over Mozambique on December 15, subsequently bringing heavy rainfall to Mozambique and Malawi. Météo-France noted the uncertainties surrounding the influence of climate change on this cyclone’s trajectory and intensity.

Météo-France emphasized that the devastation was primarily attributed to the storm’s path and its impact on Mayotte. According to their official statement, this phenomenon is exceedingly rare and has not been witnessed for 90 years. As the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for the South-West Indian Ocean, Météo-France previously detailed a seasonal forecast predicting the cyclone season could begin earlier than usual, a significant shift from past seasons that typically commenced in January.

The forecast estimated that the 2024-2025 cyclone season in the Southwest Indian Ocean may experience normal to above-normal activity levels, predicting between 9 and 13 systems, with approximately four to seven escalating to tropical cyclone status. Météo-France’s analysis aims to equip regions with crucial information for future preparedness.

Tropical cyclones are severe weather systems that form over warm ocean waters, characterized by low pressure, high winds, and heavy rain. Mayotte, situated in the Indian Ocean, is particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones due to its geographic location. The cyclone season, typically spanning from November to April, has seen an uptick in cyclone activity, raising concerns about climate change and its potential impact on storm intensity and frequency. Precise forecasting and timely warnings are crucial for minimizing the devastation of such storms, as exemplified by the recent Cyclone Chido’s impact on Mayotte.

In conclusion, Tropical Cyclone Chido represents a rare and catastrophic event in Mayotte’s history, exacerbated by extreme weather conditions and inadequate structural resilience. Despite advance warnings from Météo-France, substantial losses were incurred. As the region braces for a potentially active cyclone season, ongoing analysis of climate patterns and storm behaviors is essential for improving future preparedness and response strategies.

Original Source: wmo.int